Research ·
How bad does it get? Every drop over 8% in six years
Twelve drops deeper than 8% in under six years. The worst was −18.5%; the longest wait for a new high was 241 days. Four in ten months lost money. This is what copying a trend bot feels like between the good months.
A return figure tells you where a strategy ended up. It doesn't tell you what the trip was like, and the trip is where copiers give up. So here is every drop deeper than 8% in the backtest of the bot's current rules, January 2021 to September 2026.
All twelve
| Peak | Bottom | Drop | Days falling | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2024 | 1 Jul 2024 | −18.5% | 109 | 132 |
| 18 Jun 2022 | 9 Oct 2022 | −17.9% | 112 | 68 |
| 6 Jun 2026 | 19 Aug 2026 | −15.3% | 73 | 2 |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 27 May 2026 | −14.8% | 110 | 9 |
| 24 Jan 2023 | 4 Jun 2023 | −13.0% | 131 | 39 |
| 22 Aug 2023 | 19 Oct 2023 | −12.4% | 57 | 4 |
| 7 Apr 2025 | 4 Jul 2025 | −12.2% | 88 | 13 |
| 18 Sep 2025 | 13 Oct 2025 | −12.0% | 25 | 110 |
| 24 Feb 2022 | 22 Apr 2022 | −10.6% | 56 | 17 |
| 8 Dec 2024 | 14 Jan 2025 | −9.7% | 36 | 43 |
| 28 Feb 2025 | 2 Apr 2025 | −9.5% | 33 | 4 |
| 23 May 2021 | 17 Jun 2021 | −8.1% | 24 | 5 |
Hypothetical backtest of the live rules (4 coins, 25% stop-loss, profit lock), Binance 4-hour candles, 0.07% cost per trade, funding not included. "Days to recover" runs from the bottom back to the old peak.
What the table says
- About two a year. Twelve drops of more than 8% in 5.7 years. If you copy for a year, expect to sit through one or two.
- Slow down, sometimes fast back. The median drop took 65 days to reach bottom, and the longest fell for 131 days. Recoveries varied from 2 days to 132. Trend strategies recover in bursts, when a new trend finally runs, so the fast recoveries aren't luck; they're how the strategy makes its money.
- The longest wait was eight months. From the peak on 13 March 2024 it took 241 days, until 10 November 2024, to set a new high. Anyone who copied in March 2024 spent most of the year behind.
- Most of the time you're below a high. Only 3.2% of 4-hour closes set a new high. The account was more than 10% below its best on about a fifth of all days.
Month by month
Of 68 months, 27 lost money (40%). The worst month was −8.8% (July 2026); the best was +30.5% (November 2024). The longest run of losing months was three. Six of 22 full quarters lost money.
That lopsided shape is the whole trade-off of trend following: many small losses while the bot keeps testing trends that fade, paid for by a few large wins when one doesn't. Cut the losing months and you cut the months that set up the winners; capping the winners hurt even more.
Before you copy
Ask yourself one question: if your copy is down 15% after four months, and the bot is doing exactly what this page says it does, will you stay? If the honest answer is no, don't start. Leaving near the bottom locks in the loss and misses the recovery, which is how most copiers lose money on strategies that end up fine.
And remember what a backtest is: these drops were measured with hindsight on past data. The next one can be deeper or longer. The live record is what counts, and it's too young to say much yet.